To put it simply, it is to consider that the odds offered by your Bookmaker is higher than it should be. As the odds are the translation of a probability that the event will occur, in this case, the bookmaker underestimates the probability that the event will occur.
The notion of value bet is purely subjective. It will be up to each of you to estimate the likelihood of an event happening.
Sometimes it’s pretty straightforward when bookmakers make odds mistakes. But in most cases, you will need to develop and refine your analyzes yourself to find value bets. As for the bonus subscription, You can opt for the 은꼴.
Who is right? Who’s wrong? Where is the value?
In fact, nobody is really right and nobody is wrong because the value is the comparison of your estimate of the value of an odd with that proposed by the bookmaker. And it can differ from person to person since it is purely subjective.
How to define what is value?
As we explain above: The Value bet is purely subjective. That is, your opinion will be different from another.
To illustrate my point, here are the odds of a match at the opening of the market:
Arsenal Odds 4.60 / Draw Odds 4.30 / Manchester City Odds 1.70
Bettor A considers Arsenal’s victory a value bet.
Bettor B considers City’s Victory a value bet.
Who is right? Who is wrong? Where is the value bet?
Bettor A considers that Arsenal’s odds should have been around 4.10 instead of 4.60. His estimate therefore places Arsenal as a Value Bet.
Bettor B considers that City’s odds should have been 1.45 instead of 1.70. His estimate therefore places Manchester City as a Value Bet.
You have to understand one thing. A value bet is not necessarily for your neighbor. And this is where the difference between a good bettor and a bad bettor is made. Looking for and finding value in your sports betting makes all the difference in the long run.
Some bettors will play events that represent no value and others will always try to figure out how to beat the bookmaker’s estimated probability.
In fact at this moment, nobody is really right and nobody is wrong because the value is the confrontation of your estimate of the value of a dimension with that proposed by the bookmaker.
Only the market will decide between the two analyzes. And this will be reflected in the evolution of the odds.
The evolution of odds: Dropping Odds, Closing Odds
As you know, the odds fluctuate. And that will determine if you have made a value bet or not. What about Bettor A and Bettor B in this situation?
If ever Arsenal’s odds collapsed and the closing odds were 4.10, then Bettor A was right to take Arsenal’s odds at 4.60. There was a good value bet on Arsenal.
If City’s odds ever collapsed and the final odds ended at 1.45, then Bettor B was right to take Manchester City’s odds at 1.70. There was indeed value in that rating.
It all depends on the one hand on your analysis and the evolution of the market. The market may prove you are right or it may get you wrong. The goal is therefore to understand the market and take the odds at the best value.
The Value Bet is inseparable from the probability of an odds
First, it will be necessary to understand that odds represent the probability estimated by your bookmaker that an event will occur. This is the basis.
We have also provided a probability calculator:
Evaluate the probability of an odds on your bookmaker
You will not be able to assess the possibility of a value bet if you do not understand the principle of probability
The calculation of the probability of an odds is simple:% probability of the book = (100 / Odds)